Probabilistic Examination of All Paths in Building of a House Stochastic Project

Path

Optimistic duration

Pessimistic duration

Mean value of path duration

Variance

Standard deviation

Probability that the path (project) will be completed in 260 days

Probability that the path (project) will be completed in 270 days

Probability that the path (project) will not be completed within 270 days

Critical path

195,4

287,9

266,5

69,59027

8,3420783

0,2179360

0,6625964

0,3374036

D2-B-C-E-H

180,4

292,9

239

178,5347

13,361688

0,9419850

0,9898313

0,0101686

D1-A-C-D-F-G-H

138,2

192,4

178,8

27,35388

5,2300939

1

1

0

D1-A-C-E-H

123,2

197,4

151,3

136,2983

11,674687

1

1

0

Project

195,4

287,9

- - -

- - -

- - -

0,2052925

0,6558587

0,3441413